Daily Woody Economy – April 13, 2026
Daily Woody Economy
📊 Market Snapshot — April 10 Close
KOSPI (KSE)
5,858.87
▲ +80.86 (+1.40%)
KOSDAQ
≈ 1,154
Estimated (back-calc. from Apr 13 −5.30%)
S&P 500
6,816.89
▼ −7.77 (−0.11%)
Nasdaq Composite
22,902.90
▲ +80.48 (+0.35%)
USD / KRW
1,483.31
▲ +8.68 (+0.59%) Won weakness
KRW / 100 JPY
917.10 KRW
Back-calc. from JPY/KRW 9.1710 (Yahoo Finance)
DXY (Dollar Index)
≈ 98.70
▼ Below 99 · Dollar soft
US 10-Year Treasury
4.317%
▲ +0.024%p (+0.56%)
WTI Crude Oil
$97.87
▼ Apr 10 close · Fell to $95–96 weekend → Blockade rebound risk
Gold (USD/oz)
$4,787.40
▼ −30.60 (−0.64%)
Silver (USD/oz)
$75.68
▲ +0.48% · Weekly +4% · 3rd straight weekly gain
Bitcoin (USD)
$71,612.85
▼ −1,363.67 (−1.87%)
Bitcoin (KRW)
≈ ₩106.21M
Calculated estimate (BTC/USD × USD/KRW)
※ KOSPI, S&P 500, BTC, Gold, Silver: Apr 10 closes (Yahoo Finance). KOSDAQ ≈1,154: back-calculated from Apr 13 intraday −5.30% (Investing.com). KRW/JPY: back-calculated from JPY/KRW 9.1710 (Yahoo Finance). WTI: Apr 10 close. BTC/KRW: calculated estimate.
🚨 Breaking: Trump declares US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "effective immediately." USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) already transited the strait Apr 11 — confirmed by CENTCOM. UK rejects joining the blockade. Iran's IRGC warns it will "deal harshly" with military ships. Asian markets open sharply lower Monday.
📰 Front Page
🚨 Top Story — Breaking
The US Navy Is Now Blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran Talks Collapsed. The War Just Entered Round Two.
Iran Talks Collapsed. The War Just Entered Round Two.
Two destroyers transited Apr 11 (CENTCOM confirmed) · IRGC warns of "severe force" · UK refuses to join · China and India ships may be next
President Trump declared on Truth Social Sunday that the US Navy would "effective immediately" begin blockading "any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." Ships that paid Iran a toll to transit would be hunted down and interdicted in international waters, he said — "no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas." The declaration came hours after 21-hour peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over Iran's refusal to give up its nuclear ambitions.
The operation is already underway. US Central Command confirmed on April 11 that guided-missile destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the strait and began "setting conditions" for a mine-clearing mission. Notably, the ships sailed with their AIS transponders switched on — a deliberate signal, according to maritime historians, that the US intended to be seen. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated: "Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage." Underwater drones will join the effort in coming days. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche added on X that the DOJ would "vigorously prosecute anyone who buys or sells sanctioned Iranian oil."
Iran's IRGC called the approach a ceasefire violation and warned of a "strong response" to military ships; Iran's foreign ministry denied the transit happened at all. Trump claimed on Fox News that "the UK and other countries" would send minesweepers — but Britain's government immediately denied it. Sky News reported the UK would not join any blockade, and Prime Minister Starmer has consistently maintained that the Iran war "is not Britain's war." Trump, furious, compared Starmer to Neville Chamberlain. The blockade puts ships from China, India, and Pakistan — which have been transiting under deals with Tehran — in the crosshairs. Columbia University energy scholar Karen Young warned CNN that a full blockade could remove more than seven million barrels per day from global markets, adding: "For now and into the end of 2026, we're looking at elevated oil prices for certain."
The operation is already underway. US Central Command confirmed on April 11 that guided-missile destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the strait and began "setting conditions" for a mine-clearing mission. Notably, the ships sailed with their AIS transponders switched on — a deliberate signal, according to maritime historians, that the US intended to be seen. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated: "Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage." Underwater drones will join the effort in coming days. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche added on X that the DOJ would "vigorously prosecute anyone who buys or sells sanctioned Iranian oil."
Iran's IRGC called the approach a ceasefire violation and warned of a "strong response" to military ships; Iran's foreign ministry denied the transit happened at all. Trump claimed on Fox News that "the UK and other countries" would send minesweepers — but Britain's government immediately denied it. Sky News reported the UK would not join any blockade, and Prime Minister Starmer has consistently maintained that the Iran war "is not Britain's war." Trump, furious, compared Starmer to Neville Chamberlain. The blockade puts ships from China, India, and Pakistan — which have been transiting under deals with Tehran — in the crosshairs. Columbia University energy scholar Karen Young warned CNN that a full blockade could remove more than seven million barrels per day from global markets, adding: "For now and into the end of 2026, we're looking at elevated oil prices for certain."
Secondary
US CPI March 3.3% — The Iran War's First Inflation Bill
Consumer prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, with a 0.9% monthly jump — the biggest single-month move since June 2022. Energy costs were the primary driver. Average US gas prices hit $4.13/gallon, up $1.14 since the war began. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% on March 18, with Powell acknowledging the shock may not be transitory. With the blockade now in place, another energy price surge looks likely.
Secondary
Big Bank Earnings Week — Goldman Sachs Leads Off Today
Goldman Sachs reports before the open today (Apr 13), with consensus EPS of $16.35–$16.86 and revenue of $16.9–$17.4B. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock follow Apr 14; BofA and Morgan Stanley on Apr 15. M&A fee revival of +26% is expected. With the blockade declared, forward guidance will matter more than the Q1 numbers themselves.
🌏 Global Economy
Global 01
The US Navy Is in the Strait. So Is Iran. Neither Is Letting Ships Through Freely.
Why It Matters
This is not a threat — it is an active operation. The world's most critical oil chokepoint is now simultaneously blocked by Iran's toll system and challenged by the US Navy's interdiction order.
Key Facts
Trump's Truth Social post ordered the interdiction of ships that paid Iran's transit toll. CENTCOM confirmed the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited on April 11, with AIS transponders deliberately activated — a public signal of American intent (Fortune). Acting AG Todd Blanche threatened prosecution of any buyer or seller of sanctioned Iranian oil (ABC News). The UK government denied sending minesweepers despite Trump's claim, with Sky News reporting Britain "will not be involved in a blockade" (Pakistan Today). IRGC warned that military vessels approaching the strait would face "severe force." Iran's foreign ministry denied the transit occurred.
⚠️ Between the Lines: Iran blocks from the inside; the US interdicts from outside. The practical result could be a strait that neither side fully controls but neither allows to function normally. China and India — the main buyers of Iranian oil through Hormuz deals — now face an implicit ultimatum: stop transacting with Tehran, or risk confrontation with the US Navy. Karen Young (Columbia) warns of 7M+ barrels/day removed from markets if the blockade holds. WTI fell to $95–96 over the weekend on ceasefire hopes, but the blockade announcement has reversed that momentum.
🇰🇷 Korea Connection: Over 70% of Korea's crude imports originate in the Middle East. A prolonged blockade means rising energy import costs → current account deterioration → further KRW depreciation. Korean tankers operating near sanctioned routes face potential US interdiction risk.
Global 02
21 Hours in Islamabad, No Deal — What Broke the Talks
Why It Matters
The talks were the trigger. Understanding why they failed shapes what comes next.
Key Facts
VP Vance left Islamabad on April 12 saying Iran "chose not to accept our terms." Per the New York Times, the core US demands were a complete halt to uranium enrichment and removal of roughly 900 lbs of stockpiled enriched uranium — alongside Hormuz control. Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said: "America has never kept its promises." Pakistan said it would continue mediating, but Iran's foreign ministry said there are "currently no plans" to resume talks. Vance left a "final offer" on the table; Iran has not responded.
💡 Read Between the Lines: Vance left a door open; Ghalibaf did not slam it shut. The next meaningful signal — Iran's formal response to the "final offer" via Pakistan — will set the market's direction for the rest of the week. The two-week ceasefire technically remains in effect but is structurally hollow.
🇰🇷 Korea Connection: KOSPI's direction this week is essentially a geopolitical beta trade. Whether talks resume or escalate will determine whether the index tests 4,700 or stabilizes above 5,500.
Global 03
IMF to the Fed: "There Is Almost No Room to Cut" — Energy Shock Complicates Everything
Why It Matters
The IMF's April 1 assessment now looks even more relevant after the blockade declaration.
Key Facts
The IMF concluded its 2026 US Article IV consultation projecting 2.4% GDP growth (Q4/Q4), while warning that "with the policy rate close to neutral, there is little room to cut interest rates in 2026." The March CPI print of 3.3% YoY (+0.9% MoM) confirmed that the energy shock is already being felt in headline inflation. The IMF added that a "monetary easing would only be appropriate in the event of a material worsening in labor market prospects alongside a decline in inflationary pressures." With the blockade now adding another energy supply shock, that threshold looks even further away.
💡 Read Between the Lines: The market currently prices roughly a 30% chance of a December Fed cut. If WTI rebounds past $100 on blockade news, even that probability shrinks. Powell's final FOMC meeting (late April) will be his last act as chair — and "hold" is essentially predetermined.
🇰🇷 Korea Connection: A prolonged Fed hold means Korea's 1.0–1.25%p rate gap versus the US persists, sustaining capital outflow pressure and KRW weakness. The Bank of Korea's room to cut narrows further.
🇰🇷 Korea Economy
Korea 01
KOSPI's Geopolitical Rollercoaster: +6.87% → −1.61% → +1.40% → Today's Blockade Shock
Why It Matters
Last week's weekly gain was the strongest in 17 years. The blockade declaration just wiped the premise.
Key Facts
KOSPI surged +6.87% on April 8 — its best single-day gain since 2009 — when the ceasefire was announced. Samsung Electronics +7.38%, SK Hynix +13.65%, Hyundai Motor +7.29%. The index then fell −1.61% on April 9 as ceasefire doubts grew, and recovered +1.40% on April 10 to close at 5,858.87. Foreign investors extended their record three-month net selling streak through March, but domestic institutions absorbed the selling. Monday's open saw the blockade shock priced in — KOSDAQ fell approximately −5.30% intraday, with all sectors lower.
💡 Read Between the Lines: Last week's rally was built on a single bet: the war ends fast. That bet is now off the table. Whether the semiconductor names — Samsung and SK Hynix — can hold their levels will determine the KOSPI floor. Their AI demand story remains intact; their energy cost exposure does not.
Korea 02
Section 301 Hearing April 28 — Korea Faces Another Tariff Front
Why It Matters
Lost in the Hormuz noise, but the April 28 hearing may matter as much to Korea's exporters as the war itself.
Key Facts
After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs in February, the Trump administration pivoted to Trade Act Section 301 as its new tariff vehicle. Investigations targeting Korea and other major trading partners are underway, with a public hearing scheduled for April 28. Additional duties on semiconductors, autos, and steel are possible outcomes. Trade Minister Kim Jeong-gwan warned that "trade environment uncertainty will intensify significantly."
💡 Read Between the Lines: Section 301 takes months to finalize, so immediate impact is limited. But Korea, which benefited from a 0% FTA base rate under the 15% global tariff, could paradoxically end up worse off if sector-specific duties are layered on top. Energy shock + tariff escalation = a dual-impact scenario for Q2 exports.
Sources:
Seoul Shinmun ·
Tax Foundation
Korea 03
Korea's Feb Current Account Hit a Record $23.19B — That Was Before the Blockade
Why It Matters
A strong number — but it describes a world that no longer exists.
Key Facts
Korea recorded a record current account surplus of $23.19B in February 2026, driven by semiconductor exports (HBM and AI-related demand). The figure predates the February 28 outbreak of war. With US energy import costs surging and Hormuz shipping now actively contested, the March current account — due in coming weeks — will be the first real data point on how the war has hit Korea's trade balance.
💡 Read Between the Lines: The record surplus shows Korea's structural strength. But the blockade means the energy import cost spike accelerates. The March print will be the first quantitative test of how long that semiconductor advantage can offset the energy drag.
Sources:
Trading Economics
💼 Markets & Investment Brief
①
AlertUS blockade confirmed — Oil rebound risk. CENTCOM verified the Apr 11 destroyer transit. WTI fell to $95–96 over the weekend, but the blockade declaration has reversed that. Columbia's Karen Young: "elevated oil prices certain into end of 2026." ↗Naval News
②
TodayGoldman Sachs Q1 results before the open. Consensus EPS $16.35–$16.86, revenue $16.9–$17.4B. M&A fee surge +26% expected. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo Apr 14; BofA, Morgan Stanley Apr 15. Forward guidance will be scrutinized for energy cost pass-through and consumer credit stress signals. ↗TipRanks
③
SilverSilver up three consecutive weeks, +4% last week. Apr 10 close: $75.68. Weak dollar (DXY below 99) and rate cut expectations drove the move. If blockade reignites inflation fears and pushes the Fed further from a cut, upside may be capped near-term. Medium-term resistance: $78.85 → $83.70. ↗Trading Economics
④
FedPowell's final FOMC — late April. With energy prices rising again, a hold is essentially certain. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation is stalled; Powell could remain as acting chair past May. The transition to a new chair with Trump's rate-cut pressure vs. Fed independence is the defining risk of Q2. ↗U.S. Bank
⑤
KOSPISamsung Securities April KOSPI band: 4,700–5,900. Blockade shock increases probability of testing the lower bound this week. Sector rotation watch: Refiners (SK Innovation, GS) may benefit from elevated crude. Semiconductors expected to hold on AI demand fundamentals despite short-term pressure.
Editorial
Both Sides Are Blocking the Strait. The Bill Goes to Everyone Else.
Iran charges a toll. The US interdicts the ships that paid it. The result is a strait that neither side controls but both sides are preventing from functioning. Twenty percent of the world's oil supply passes through a channel now defined by competing blockades — and the price of that deadlock is being paid not in Washington or Tehran, but in Seoul, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Dublin, where diesel protesters have been blocking roads for days.
Korea's position in this moment is structurally exposed. A record current account surplus — built on semiconductor exports — is being eroded in real time by energy import costs. The blockade accelerates that dynamic. The March current account data, when it arrives, will be the first honest reckoning.
The deeper question is one that markets rarely price until it is too late: if 20% of global energy supply can be switched off by a single geopolitical decision, what assumptions about normalcy have we been building on?
Korea's position in this moment is structurally exposed. A record current account surplus — built on semiconductor exports — is being eroded in real time by energy import costs. The blockade accelerates that dynamic. The March current account data, when it arrives, will be the first honest reckoning.
The deeper question is one that markets rarely price until it is too late: if 20% of global energy supply can be switched off by a single geopolitical decision, what assumptions about normalcy have we been building on?
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